On solar cycle predictions and reconstructions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Chaos in the Solar Cycle: using data to drive predictions
This report presents first steps at applying chaos theory to the solar activity cycle. We provide brief reviews of the history of sunspot records, the mathematical framework of chaos theory, and solar dynamo theory. Finally, we present results of nonlinear analysis of solar motion and propose that further research focus on characterizing local Lyapunov exponents of solar dynamics.
متن کاملUsing the dipolar and quadrupolar moments to improve solar-cycle predictions based on the polar magnetic fields.
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions, leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. Here we show th...
متن کاملThe Solar Cycle
The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fl...
متن کاملSolar Cycle Prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the sta...
متن کاملHow Uncertain Are Solar Neutrino Predictions?
Solar neutrino fluxes and sound speeds are calculated using a systematic reevaluation of nuclear fusion rates. The largest uncertainties are identified and their effects on the solar neutrino fluxes are estimated. q 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Astronomy & Astrophysics
سال: 2009
ISSN: 0004-6361,1432-0746
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361:200810862